Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Obama Win Dissected

Obama scored an impressive win on 4thNovember. How an unknown black community organizer (Why will Sarah Palin mock it?) from Chicago rose to be the 44th President of United States of America.? And why 1s this so significant?

Technology triumphed. The old style campaigning and fund raising was no match for internet savvy geeks. They raised more than half a billion dollars and reduced the GOP and Clinton heavyweight slithering locomotives to smithereens. McCain got railroaded by a blitz of ads while he had no money to spend.

A well honed message of CHANGE dented Republicans in a big way. John McCain compounded his lack of clear cut message by dithering again and again and adding the Karl Rove hacks to his team. The hallmark of these guys was “Divide and Rule”. They tried to convey a message which was framed in the terms of Small town and big towns, Commoners and elites, Southerners and northerners, Evangelicals and other Christian denominations, Radical and non radical Islamists, Europeans and East Europeans and lethal suburbs and countryside bumpkins as well as Patriots and non patriots. US citizens after a deep slumber of more than a decade refused to be moronic again. They soundly rejected slice and dice messages and accepted a message of hope, civil discourse, diplomacy and unity message, however unclear it was.

Education mattered. Obama team members were sophisticated and prioritarized their every move, every day of their campaign. They artfully ducked many tricky questions and situations by changing the discourse to their advantage. McCain fumbled and bumbled by branding his opponents as Elites. The majority of country had no clue as to what the word ELITE means. This was an unequal war between Nerds and Geeks. The old political operatives were shown the door.

International scorn has been heaped on US for the last 8 years for its ideological rants and pre emptive forays and the wars that are unpopular at home as well as in every nook and corner of the world. Obama’s sensible talk of willingness to talk to those willing to talk to us and treat all countries with respect has made him a world hero. McCain was always on thin ice on this. Hawkish America had cut a sorry figure on world stage and McCain’s promise to continue the tone sealed his fate. His talk of punishing Russia when they intruded into Georgia was foolhardy and drove off millions of people away from him.

The choice of vice president candidate provided a pivotal point in the campaign. The selection of Sarah Palin showed adherence to age old vote hustling techniques. McCain was out of touch with the reality on ground. Obama had developed a keen insight into new voting equations while fending off a formidable Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden not only provided Pennsylvania but also obliterated the charge that Obama had no experience in foreign policy. The hoopla about Sarah Palin was a sideshow and was very unfair to her. She was a good and populist politician like anyone else and has been treated unfairly by media and a lot of other people.

McCain’s difficulty in decoupling from Bush and his wars had handicapped him at the beginning of his candidacy. Obama’s original capital comprised of his opposition to Iraq war but McCain kept on adding to it by being torn between towing a party line or to be a rogue candidate. Only in the wee days of his campaign he said that he is not Bush. Many of Bush’s actions also undercut McCain. McCain paid no heed to the war fatigue and public’s disapproval of wars in two election cycles when Republicans had lost. This leads me to think that McCain may have been set up as a fall guy. The Bush people knew that that chance of success of any Republican presidential candidate was negligible. But when McCain snagged nomination they got scared because they were sure that he would dismantle the Bush policy in the same way Obama would do. They would let Obama do it instead of McCain. They in filtered McCain campaign and wrecked it from within.

McCain’s 26 years in the Senate clearly were a millstone around his neck. His record of jumping fences and supporting sometimes unpopular causes had already made him a pariah for many pivotal special interest groups and a darling of media. He was left high and dry by them at the time of need when he needed money to put up a decent fight. Media also shunned him for playing traditional politics. Obama’s newness and oratory was his asset. The lack of personal scandals on Obama’s case was icing on the cake. No wonder Jeremiah Wright, Ayers, Michelle Obama’s gaff, non experience argument or being branded as Muslim had any effect on the electorate.

Economic meltdown was a godsend for Obama. It solidified the national dislike of Bush for his having bungled one thing after another. It also brought out the lack of basic economic IQ on the part of McCain. Meanwhile the meltdown went from bad to worse and bamboozled everybody including economists and we ran out of solutions. The bailout package of $ 700 billion was seen by people as anti middle class which made Obama look good. He meanwhile generated a very positive buzz by assembling a team of well known economists including Volcker, Rubin, Summers, Reich, Schmidt and many more to back him up. To top it the entire crisis demolished the ideological boundaries between capitalistic and socialistic philosophies which made with the people Bush and McCain ideas look irrelevant and naïve.

Radio and TV Pundits made hay of the chaotic and long election season. They howled so long that they lost relevancy. Yet, the more O’Rielly, Savage, Hannity, Limbaugh and TV pundits talked, the more they seemed to be out of touch with reality which left the people tired. The electorate wanted Bush out and would go for anyone who was willing to demolish his legacy. Poor McCain was torn between the party loyalty and his maverickiness and floundered all over the place. His party did not like him. Most radio and TV pundits did not like him. It also seems to be the end of line for many of these pundits as they were not able to sustain their ranting in such a long election cycle. In the end the situation was tailor made for Obama to drill his message day in and day out. He out maneuvered all of them.

The most telling success of Obama could be attributed to his appeal to younger generation. He very ably exploited the generation gap and tapped into the abundant energy in registering new voters getting the vote out. The results which obliterated red and blue boundaries are now a part of history.

And last not but the least Obama’s master stroke was stealthily internationalizing the US presidential elections. His visit to Europe made US election an international event. The worldwide jubilation was a collective sigh of relief of the world for ridding Bush and impending installation of Obama who will treat the world without any pre emptive strike philosophy and was willing to talk to them.